Prediction Giants Pivot to Perpetual Futures and Commodities
Kalshi and Polymarket are gearing up for a major expansion into derivatives. Both platforms are set to launch perpetual futures trading, marking a significant evolution beyond traditional event contracts. For Kalshi, this crypto expansion coincides with a broader asset rollout; the platform is tapping Pyth Network to determine outcomes for its new commodities markets, which will include assets like oil, gold, and crops.
States and Platforms Crack Down on Market Integrity
As platforms expand their offerings, state regulators and exchanges are tightening market integrity rules—a trend closely monitored by predictionmarketstools.com. On Wednesday, New York and Illinois officially banned government employees from trading on insider information across prediction markets due to the surging popularity of political betting.
Meanwhile, Kalshi took direct action against political candidates, fining Virginia U.S. Senate candidate Mark Moran and others for betting on their own elections. Moran had previously defended the self-wagers as "free advertising."
Coinbase Moves Lawsuit, Polymarket Prices Kelp Exploit
The regulatory battle lines are also shifting to federal venues. Coinbase Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal announced the company has removed its New York prediction markets lawsuit to federal court, setting up a high-stakes confrontation over CFTC authority versus state gambling laws.
In decentralized finance markets, traders are actively pricing the fallout of a massive hack. Polymarket currently shows low odds that Kelp will socialize losses following its $292 million exploit, as the protocol weighs how to handle an undercollateralized rsETH supply.