For years, sports bettors accepted the "vig" as a cost of doing business. DraftKings, FanDuel, and Vegas sportsbooks all charge roughly 10% juice on standard bets. That means you need to win 52.4% of your bets just to break even.
In 2026, a quiet migration is underway. Sharp sports bettors are moving their action to prediction markets, where fees are near-zero and liquidity is surprisingly deep. Here's the complete guide to sports betting on Polymarket, Kalshi, and beyond.
Why Prediction Markets Beat Traditional Sportsbooks
| Feature | DraftKings/Vegas | Prediction Markets |
|---|---|---|
| Vig/Fees | ~10% juice | 0-2% (gas only) |
| Betting Limits | Sharp bettors limited | Unlimited (liquidity-dependent) |
| Account Restrictions | Winners get banned | No account restrictions |
| Settlement | Centralized | On-chain/transparent |
| Prop Variety | Standard props | Any market with liquidity |
Available Sports Markets in 2026
Polymarket Sports
Polymarket has expanded aggressively into sports. Currently available:
- Championships: Super Bowl, NBA Finals, World Series, World Cup, Stanley Cup
- Awards: MVP, Cy Young, Ballon d'Or, Rookie of the Year
- Transfers: Will [Player X] be traded before the deadline?
- Records: Will anyone break [specific record] this season?
Kalshi Sports
Kalshi's regulated status limits some sports markets, but they offer:
- Championship winners (major leagues)
- Season win totals (over/under for teams)
- Player milestone achievements
The Sharp Bettor's Edge
Prediction markets are less efficient than traditional sportsbooks for one simple reason: the betting public hasn't discovered them yet. This creates opportunities:
1. Line Shopping Across Platforms
The same "Chiefs to win Super Bowl" might be priced at:
- DraftKings: +450 (18.2% implied)
- Polymarket: 22¢ (22% implied)
- Kalshi: 20¢ (20% implied)
A 4% edge is massive in sports betting. Always compare prices.
2. Exploiting Recreational Money
Prediction markets attract crypto-native traders who may not follow sports closely. When a star player gets injured, prediction markets often lag traditional sportsbooks by hours. This is free money for informed bettors.
3. Long-Tail Props
Want to bet on whether a specific player will be traded? Whether a coach will be fired? Traditional sportsbooks rarely offer these. Prediction markets do.
Bankroll Management for Sports PM Trading
Sports prediction markets require modified bankroll management:
- Unit Size: 1-2% of bankroll per bet (standard)
- Futures Allocation: No more than 20% of bankroll in long-dated futures
- Liquidity Check: Never bet more than 10% of a market's total liquidity
- Platform Diversification: Split bankroll across Polymarket and Kalshi
The Gas Fee Calculation
On Polymarket, you don't pay vig—but you do pay gas. Here's how to calculate your true cost:
True Cost = (Gas Fee / Bet Size) * 100
Example:
- Bet Size: $500
- Gas Fee: $0.50 (Polygon)
- True Cost: 0.1%
Compare to DraftKings: 10% vig
Edge Retained: 9.9%For bets over $100, prediction markets almost always win on fees.
Settlement and Disputes
One concern with sports PM: what happens with controversial calls?
- Polymarket: Uses UMA oracle. Community votes on disputed outcomes. Generally sides with "official league ruling."
- Kalshi: Centralized resolution. Uses official league statistics as source of truth.
In practice, sports resolutions are cleaner than political markets. "Did the Chiefs win?" has a clear answer.
Getting Started: Your First Sports PM Bet
- Fund your Polymarket wallet with USDC (via Coinbase or direct deposit)
- Browse the Sports category for available markets
- Compare odds to your preferred sportsbook
- If PM odds are better, execute the trade
- Track your position until resolution
Explore Sports Prediction Market Tools in our Directory.