Institutional Adoption Drives $10 Billion Forecast
Prediction markets are rapidly maturing from their gambling roots into a recognized asset class, with a new report from Citizens Bank projecting the sector could generate $10 billion in yearly revenue by 2030. The bank cites tighter market structures and early institutional engagement as key drivers pushing the industry toward a $3 billion run rate.
This growth trajectory is supported by increasing validation from major financial entities. Recent research from the Federal Reserve found that contracts traded on Kalshi frequently outperform traditional Wall Street surveys in forecasting economic data, signaling a shift in how financial institutions view crowd-sourced intelligence.
Polymarket Volumes Spike on Investigations and Bearish Sentiment
On the trading floor, volume remains concentrated on high-profile crypto disputes. According to Cointelegraph, Polymarket users have placed over $7 million in bets regarding the outcome of an investigation by on-chain sleuth ZachXBT. Current odds favor Meteora in the probe, with results expected to be announced this Thursday.
Broader market sentiment has turned significantly bearish. Following a dip in Bitcoin's market cap to $1.31 trillion, prediction market traders are now assigning a 72% probability that Bitcoin will drop below $55,000. Traders utilizing predictionmarketstools.com have tracked a sharp increase in negative sentiment as prices slipped below the $65,000 threshold earlier this week.
Regulators and Platforms Tighten Controls
As the industry scales, platforms are moving to address compliance and integrity. Kalshi recently announced it has cleared a backlog of suspicious activity and plans to disclose specific actions taken against insider trading to reassure participants.
However, international regulatory hurdles persist. Dutch authorities have ordered Adventure One, a Polymarket affiliate, to halt operations after alleging the platform offered illegal bets on elections in the Netherlands.