Regulatory Clouds Part for Prediction Markets
In a decisive shift for the event contract industry, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has officially withdrawn a controversial Biden-era proposal that sought to ban prediction markets focused on sports and political control. According to Cointelegraph, CFTC Chair Mike Selig dismissed the previous administration's effort as a "frolic into merit regulation," effectively clearing a major regulatory hurdle for platforms operating in the United States.
The legal victories for the sector extended to the state level this week. A Nevada judge declined to grant an emergency bid by state regulators to halt Coinbase’s event contract markets. As reported by Cointelegraph, the court’s decision allows Coinbase to continue operations while it presses its argument that federal CFTC authority preempts state gaming laws. Traders and analysts using prediction market tools view these developments as a significant stabilization of the legal landscape for 2026.
Polymarket Eyes Token Launch and Infrastructure Upgrade
With legal threats receding, the world's largest prediction market appears to be preparing for a token generation event. Decrypt reports that Polymarket has filed trademark applications for "POLY" and "$POLY," specifically tied to digital tokens and crypto trading services. This move suggests the platform is looking to decentralize governance or incentivize liquidity through a native asset.
Simultaneously, the platform is hardening its technical infrastructure. Polymarket has entered a partnership to migrate from bridged USDC on Polygon to Circle-issued native USDC. Cointelegraph notes that this shift is designed to reduce reliance on cross-chain bridges, enhancing security and settlement speed as the market expands.
Kalshi Sees Record Super Bowl Volume
While competitors navigate infrastructure changes, regulated exchange Kalshi is capitalizing on immediate sporting events. The platform has recorded nearly $170 million in bets related to the upcoming Super Bowl. To manage this surge in volume and scrutiny, Kalshi has established an independent surveillance committee to boost oversight and ensure market integrity amidst the high-stakes trading environment.
Coinbase Financial Outlook
Despite its regulatory win in Nevada, Coinbase's broader financial outlook remains mixed. CoinDesk reports that Citi has cut its price target for the exchange to $400 following a 65% plunge from record highs, citing a "brutal risk-off environment" for crypto assets.