Prediction Markets for Research

Prediction Markets as Research Tools

Prediction markets provide valuable data for researchers, journalists, and analysts. Market prices aggregate information from diverse participants, offering real-time probability estimates that often outperform expert forecasts and traditional polls.

Research Applications

• Forecasting accuracy studies - Compare market predictions to outcomes
• Information aggregation - Study how markets process new information
• Political science - Analyze election forecasting effectiveness
• Economics research - Study market efficiency and behavioral patterns
• Journalism - Real-time odds for news stories and analysis
• Corporate decision-making - Internal prediction markets for forecasting

Available Data Sources

• Historical price data - Track how odds changed over time
• Trading volume - Measure market liquidity and interest
• Order book depth - Analyze market microstructure
• Resolution data - Final outcomes for accuracy analysis
• Trader behavior - Anonymized trading patterns (some platforms)

Tools for Researchers

Academic Resources

• Iowa Electronic Markets - Pioneer in academic prediction markets
• Metaculus - Focus on long-term forecasting with track record data
• Good Judgment Open - Superforecaster methodology and tournaments
• Manifold Markets - Play-money market for experimentation